Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:06 am at Philadelphia); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today: one nonstop, UA 3593 at 15:10, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 3593 PHL 15:10 → IAD 16:18 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 3593 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 15:10	IAD 16:18	11%	3%	0.4%	86%
UA 6235 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 10:39	IAD 11:55	14%	2%	3.4%	86%
UA 4587 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 19:45	IAD 21:10	16%	13%	11.4%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON