Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 584 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 584 PHL 06:15 → IAH 08:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1526 PHL 13:01 → IAH 15:52 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 584 United Flight history →	PHL 06:15	IAH 08:44	11%	3%	0.7%	95%
UA 2430 United Flight history →	PHL 19:58	IAH 22:32	19%	6%	0.6%	67%
UA 2038 United Flight history →	PHL 13:04	IAH 15:35	20%	5%	0.6%	87%
AA 3021 American Flight history →	PHL 19:55	IAH 22:49	25%	8%	0.9%	70%
AA 1927 American Flight history →	PHL 08:57	IAH 11:41	30%	6%	0.9%	81%worse than usual
AA 1925 American Flight history →	PHL 13:02	IAH 15:47	30%	6%	1.0%	81%worse than usual
AA 2196 American	PHL 08:21	IAH 11:02	30%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 1526 American	PHL 13:01	IAH 15:52	30%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON