Today: YX 4796 at 09:56 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–31%.

Safest bet today YX 4796 PHL 09:56 → IND 12:23 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3015 PHL 16:31 → IND 18:43 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4796 Republic	PHL 09:56	IND 12:23	11%	3%	0.1%	no record
YX 4518 Republic	PHL 15:28	IND 17:54	14%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 4637 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 18:19	IND 20:45	16%	6%	0.3%	76%
AA 5240 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:45	IND 12:56	18%	8%	0.5%	86%
AA 5592 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 14:11	IND 16:18	20%	9%	0.5%	70%
AA 5209 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 08:20	IND 10:28	21%	7%	0.6%	68%
AA 682 American Flight history →	PHL 21:43	IND 23:51	26%	7%	1.0%	76%
AA 1957 American Flight history →	PHL 16:23	IND 18:28	28%	10%	0.3%	61%
AA 1247 American Flight history →	PHL 22:00	IND 23:58	30%	6%	0.8%	66%
AA 3015 American Flight history →	PHL 16:31	IND 18:43	31%	11%	0.2%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON