Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:00 am at Philadelphia); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: AA 1791 at 08:14 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–40%.

Safest bet today AA 1791 PHL 08:14 → JAX 10:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1970 PHL 17:06 → JAX 19:33 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 1791 American Flight history →	PHL 08:14	JAX 10:32	16%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 2916 American Flight history →	PHL 08:30	JAX 10:57	16%	4%	0.8%	90%
AA 3078 American	PHL 12:57	JAX 15:16	24%	7%	1.0%	no record
F9 2815 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 10:00	JAX 12:19	26%	11%	1.4%	70%
AA 5248 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 13:31	JAX 15:53	28%	9%	1.5%	69%
AA 3135 American Flight history →	PHL 16:00	JAX 18:29	35%	8%	1.0%	68%
AA 1992 American	PHL 20:43	JAX 23:02	35%	7%	2.7%	no record
AA 2940 American Flight history →	PHL 18:14	JAX 20:43	37%	10%	1.0%	62%
AA 1970 American Flight history →	PHL 17:06	JAX 19:33	40%	9%	0.9%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON