Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1263 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1263 PHL 06:15 → LAS 08:37 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1601 PHL 11:06 → LAS 13:32 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1263 American	PHL 06:15	LAS 08:37	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2280 American	PHL 09:22	LAS 12:03	19%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 2018 American Flight history →	PHL 08:25	LAS 10:42	22%	5%	1.0%	77%
AA 3040 American Flight history →	PHL 15:55	LAS 18:22	27%	8%	1.2%	77%
AA 3005 American Flight history →	PHL 18:05	LAS 20:30	27%	7%	1.3%	71%
AA 3250 American Flight history →	PHL 22:13	LAS 00:32	27%	5%	1.3%	65%
AA 2381 American	PHL 16:10	LAS 18:36	28%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 1529 American	PHL 18:20	LAS 20:58	28%	7%	1.3%	no record
F9 1601 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 11:06	LAS 13:32	35%	12%	1.3%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	PHL 05:00 → DEN 07:00WN 2664	1h 27m Denver	DEN 08:27 → LAS 09:22WN 1629	7h 22m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 51m	97%	90%
Southwest Details →	PHL 06:05 → STL 07:25WN 3227	1h 50m St Louis	STL 09:15 → LAS 10:40WN 2327	7h 35m	91%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON