Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:40 am at Philadelphia); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2875 at 14:28, 38%.

Safest bet today AA 2875 PHL 14:28 → MCI 16:41 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest AA 1762 PHL 18:54 → MCI 21:06 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Weather 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2875 American Flight history →	PHL 14:28	MCI 16:41	38%	20%	0.6%	65%
AA 1268 American Flight history →	PHL 13:14	MCI 15:26	46%	15%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
AA 1762 American Flight history →	PHL 18:54	MCI 21:06	49%	23%	0.6%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON