Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:34 pm at Philadelphia); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 39–40% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5387 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:00	MEM 21:52	39%	11%	0.7%	75%worse than usual
AA 5415 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:05	MEM 21:00	40%	11%	0.8%	66%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHL 17:40 → ORD 19:26AA 1012	3h 04m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy	7h 38m	89%	71%
United Details →	PHL 17:00 → ORD 18:33UA 308	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317	7h 21m	93%	69%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → MEM 23:29DL 8930	7h 12m	93%	62%
Southwest Details →	PHL 17:20 → MDW 18:30WN 2756	3h 50m Chicago	MDW 22:20 → MEM 00:03 +1WN 4506	7h 43m	92%	60%
American Details →	PHL 16:55 → CLT 18:58AA 3030	3h 58m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → MEM 23:45AA 2392	7h 50m	100%	60%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:35 → BOS 19:07DL 5706 · flown by Republic	2h 08m Boston	BOS 21:15 → MEM 23:35DL 5594 · flown by Republic	7h 00m	83%	57%
American Details →	PHL 17:52 → MIA 20:46AA 3306	1h 42m Miami	MIA 22:28 → MEM 23:55AA 1551	7h 03m	84%	56%
Delta Details →	PHL 19:25 → ATL 21:42DL 1329	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MEM 23:24DL 2501	4h 59m	84%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHL 18:35 → MIA 21:38AA 2111	50m Miami	MIA 22:28 → MEM 23:55AA 1551	6h 20m	47%	32%
United Details →	PHL 19:00 → ORD 20:33UA 2797	47m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317	5h 21m	36%	26%
American Details →	PHL 17:49 → DFW 20:34AA 2533	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MEM 23:05AA 1758	6h 16m	48%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON