Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:59 am at Philadelphia); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: AA 5018 at 11:00 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–38%.

Safest bet today AA 5018 PHL 11:00 → MKE 12:22 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 710 PHL 15:59 → MKE 17:17 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 5018 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 11:00	MKE 12:22	28%	9%	1.3%	72%
AA 5483 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 22:25	MKE 23:44	33%	10%	0.9%	68%
OH 5279 PSA	PHL 22:15	MKE 23:38	33%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 5439 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 16:09	MKE 17:33	38%	11%	0.8%	60%
AA 710 American Flight history →	PHL 15:59	MKE 17:17	39%	13%	0.6%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON