Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:29 pm at Philadelphia); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 55%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: AA 5545 at 19:39, 55%.

Nonstops today


AA 5545 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:39	OMA 21:53	55%	20%	1.3%	68%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PHL 17:20 → MDW 18:30WN 2756	3h 30m Chicago	MDW 22:00 → OMA 23:34WN 2946	7h 14m	93%	72%
Delta Details →	PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 22:28 → OMA 23:49DL 2010	8h 41m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	PHL 15:38 → MSP 17:37DL 2679	3h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest	8h 10m	89%	69%
American Details →	PHL 17:40 → ORD 19:26AA 1012	3h 34m Chicago	ORD 23:00 → OMA 00:37 +1AA 3198	7h 57m	91%	63%
United Details →	PHL 17:00 → ORD 18:33UA 308	2h 42m Chicago	ORD 21:15 → OMA 22:48UA 2336	6h 48m	88%	62%
United Details →	PHL 16:14 → DEN 18:25UA 2644	2h 40m Denver	DEN 21:05 → OMA 23:42UA 1787	8h 28m	92%	61%
American Details →	PHL 16:55 → CLT 18:58AA 3030	3h 43m Charlotte	CLT 22:41 → OMA 00:19 +1AA 961	8h 24m	100%	61%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 19:30 → OMA 20:54DL 2707	7h 22m	96%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHL 15:38 → MSP 17:37DL 2679	48m Minneapolis	MSP 18:25 → OMA 19:47DL 4024 · flown by SkyWest	5h 09m	35%	27%
Delta Details →	PHL 19:25 → ATL 21:42DL 1329	46m Atlanta	ATL 22:28 → OMA 23:49DL 2010	5h 24m	28%	21%
American Details →	PHL 16:17 → PHX 18:24AA 2927	50m Phoenix	PHX 19:14 → OMA 23:58AA 6420 · flown by SkyWest	8h 41m	30%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON