Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 23–32% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2271 PHL 08:45 → PBI 11:31 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 3145 PHL 19:50 → PBI 22:40 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2271 American Flight history →	PHL 08:45	PBI 11:31	23%	6%	1.8%	84%
F9 2499 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 16:34	PBI 19:25	30%	14%	1.3%	63%
AA 3145 American Flight history →	PHL 19:50	PBI 22:40	32%	8%	1.2%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON