tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:16 pm at Philadelphia)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3090 at 19:49, 38%.

Safest bet today AA 3090 PHL 19:49 → PDX 23:18 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 1787 PHL 17:46 → PDX 20:37 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time
Weather 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 3090 American Flight history → PHL 19:49 PDX 23:18 38% 14% 0.7% 93%worse than usual
AA 1483 American Flight history → PHL 20:12 PDX 23:30 39% 14% 0.9% 71%
AS 1787 Alaska Flight history → PHL 17:46 PDX 20:37 47% 9% 0.6% 65%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
AlaskaDetails → PHL 18:41 → SEA 21:28AS 443 1h 58m Seattle SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon 8h 41m 92% 74%
UnitedDetails → PHL 15:10 → IAD 16:18UA 3593 · flown by Republic 1h 22m Dulles IAD 17:40 → PDX 20:19UA 780 8h 09m 84% 69%
UnitedDetails → PHL 17:00 → ORD 18:33UA 308 1h 34m Chicago ORD 20:07 → PDX 22:38UA 2243 8h 38m 81% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON