Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:21 pm at Philadelphia); 6 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: AA 2622 at 22:00 is the safest bet, 30% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–42%.

Safest bet today AA 2622 PHL 22:00 → PHX 00:10 · 30% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1984 PHL 17:30 → PHX 19:37 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2622 American	PHL 22:00	PHX 00:10	30%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 1311 American	PHL 20:33	PHX 23:03	31%	6%	0.3%	no record
AA 2721 American Flight history →	PHL 21:50	PHX 23:59	31%	7%	0.3%	72%
AA 2927 American Flight history →	PHL 16:17	PHX 18:24	35%	6%	0.3%	68%
AA 1984 American Flight history →	PHL 17:30	PHX 19:37	42%	6%	0.2%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PHL 15:10 → IAD 16:18UA 3593 · flown by Republic	1h 32m Dulles	IAD 17:50 → PHX 19:46UA 1938	7h 36m	90%	68%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391	1h 29m Detroit	DTW 20:44 → PHX 21:48DL 2076	7h 20m	78%	57%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → PHX 18:53DL 836	7h 21m	84%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON