Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:04 am at Philadelphia); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Today: AA 5032 at 11:36 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet today AA 5032 PHL 11:36 → PIT 13:11 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 2901 PHL 19:17 → PIT 20:37 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 5032 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 11:36	PIT 13:11	18%	11%	0.6%	71%
AA 5485 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 11:00	PIT 12:25	21%	10%	0.5%	61%
AA 2312 American Flight history →	PHL 15:04	PIT 16:25	22%	9%	0.2%	68%
AA 2731 American	PHL 15:52	PIT 17:08	24%	10%	0.2%	no record
AA 5320 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 22:34	PIT 23:56	24%	8%	0.8%	68%
AA 3195 American	PHL 22:16	PIT 23:36	25%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 347 American Flight history →	PHL 19:24	PIT 21:00	27%	7%	0.9%	77%
OH 5124 PSA	PHL 17:59	PIT 19:33	28%	14%	0.6%	no record
AA 2901 American Flight history →	PHL 19:17	PIT 20:37	30%	8%	0.9%	66%
AA 6092 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 17:40	PIT 19:12	31%	11%	9.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON