Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:05 pm at Philadelphia); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Miami, leaving 17:51, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Pensacola on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHL 17:51 → MIA 20:46AA 3306	2h 22m Miami	MIA 23:08 → PNS 23:59AA 4109 · flown by Envoy	7h 08m	94%	73%
Delta Details →	PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 21:34 → PNS 21:47DL 3086	6h 39m	95%	65%
Southwest Details →	PHL 14:00 → BNA 15:10WN 3216	3h 55m Nashville	BNA 19:05 → PNS 20:35WN 2774	7h 35m	98%	63%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021	6h 32m	96%	59%
American Details →	PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793	2h 31m Charlotte	CLT 18:16 → PNS 19:10AA 5429 · flown by PSA	6h 21m	95%	50%
American Details →	PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402	2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:22 → PNS 22:22AA 5510 · flown by PSA	8h 22m	89%	50%
American Details →	PHL 19:35 → CLT 21:29AA 1661	1h 32m Charlotte	CLT 23:01 → PNS 23:46AA 1007	5h 11m	79%	47%
American Details →	PHL 16:10 → DCA 17:20AA 5363 · flown by PSA	2h 01m Washington	DCA 19:21 → PNS 21:00AA 5544 · flown by PSA	5h 50m	100%	39%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356	1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:22 → PNS 22:22AA 5510 · flown by PSA	7h 00m	71%	40%
American Details →	PHL 15:49 → CLT 17:28AA 3012	48m Charlotte	CLT 18:16 → PNS 19:10AA 5429 · flown by PSA	4h 21m	47%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON