Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:35 am at Philadelphia); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Today: AA 5127 at 14:52 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet today AA 5127 PHL 14:52 → PWM 16:35 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 1889 PHL 21:00 → PWM 22:33 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 5127 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 14:52	PWM 16:35	18%	7%	0.7%	79%
AA 1436 American	PHL 10:28	PWM 12:01	20%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 2354 American Flight history →	PHL 12:45	PWM 14:16	22%	6%	0.3%	89%worse than usual
OH 5285 PSA	PHL 21:18	PWM 22:57	22%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 652 American Flight history →	PHL 22:09	PWM 23:50	28%	8%	1.3%	76%
OH 5129 PSA	PHL 17:25	PWM 19:01	31%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 1889 American Flight history →	PHL 21:00	PWM 22:33	33%	7%	1.3%	68%
AA 6125 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 16:54	PWM 18:34	21%	8%	2.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON