Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:00 pm at Philadelphia); 8 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Today: YX 4759 at 16:06 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36–52%.

Safest bet today YX 4759 PHL 16:06 → RDU 17:54 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1517 PHL 19:17 → RDU 20:55 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4759 Republic	PHL 16:06	RDU 17:54	18%	8%	0.5%	no record
AA 2360 American Flight history →	PHL 15:06	RDU 16:42	36%	12%	0.4%	55%
AA 873 American	PHL 21:06	RDU 22:49	36%	19%	0.4%	no record
AA 2692 American	PHL 22:38	RDU 00:13	42%	19%	0.5%	no record
AA 3125 American Flight history →	PHL 22:00	RDU 23:34	46%	14%	0.4%	65%worse than usual
AA 706 American Flight history →	PHL 18:27	RDU 19:57	48%	23%	0.4%	65%worse than usual
AA 5590 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 17:30	RDU 19:11	52%	32%	1.8%	62%worse than usual
F9 1517 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 19:17	RDU 20:55	52%	41%	1.8%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON