tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:57 pm at Philadelphia); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42% (calm day: 31%). Best bet: American via Charlotte, leaving 16:02, 41% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2058 American Flight history → PHL 18:11 SAT 21:28 46% 23% 0.5% 64%worse than usual
AA 3301 American Flight history → PHL 17:45 SAT 20:46 52% 23% 0.4% 62%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHL 15:10 → IAD 16:18UA 3593 · flown by Republic 1h 27m Dulles IAD 17:45 → SAT 20:22UA 1869 6h 12m 89% 70%
SouthwestDetails → PHL 17:20 → MDW 18:30WN 2756 2h 50m Chicago MDW 21:20 → SAT 00:10 +1WN 2982 7h 50m 89% 70%
UnitedDetails → PHL 16:14 → DEN 18:25UA 2644 2h 14m Denver DEN 20:39 → SAT 23:55UA 395 8h 41m 90% 65%
SouthwestDetails → PHL 18:00 → STL 19:30WN 2679 2h 45m St Louis STL 22:15 → SAT 00:25 +1WN 3979 7h 25m 81% 62%
AmericanDetails → PHL 15:45 → ORD 17:29AA 470 3h 50m Chicago ORD 21:19 → SAT 00:10 +1AA 431 9h 25m 96% 60%
SouthwestDetails → PHL 16:45 → DEN 18:50WN 3221 2h 03m Denver DEN 20:53 → SAT 00:09 +1WN 2607 8h 24m 85% 57%
UnitedDetails → PHL 17:00 → ORD 18:33UA 308 1h 25m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394 6h 57m 77% 56%
AmericanDetails → PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356 2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:56 → SAT 23:04AA 3097 7h 42m 96% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → PHL 16:45 → DEN 18:50WN 3221 1h 00m Denver DEN 19:50 → SAT 23:10WN 2073 7h 25m 47% 32%
SouthwestDetails → PHL 18:30 → DAL 21:00WN 3218 59m Dallas DAL 21:59 → SAT 23:13WN 1458 5h 43m 51% 32%
AmericanDetails → PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:55 → SAT 21:03AA 546 5h 41m 22% 11%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON