Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:56 pm at Philadelphia); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: AA 5273 at 20:00, 42%.

Safest bet today AA 5273 PHL 20:00 → SAV 22:27 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 2504 PHL 15:38 → SAV 17:51 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Weather 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 5273 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:00	SAV 22:27	42%	20%	1.8%	78%worse than usual
AA 2303 American	PHL 16:27	SAV 18:41	49%	22%	1.0%	no record
AA 2504 American Flight history →	PHL 15:38	SAV 17:51	50%	22%	1.0%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON