Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 16–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 4466 PHL 20:38 → SDF 23:03 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 5394 PHL 15:25 → SDF 17:36 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4466 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 20:38	SDF 23:03	16%	4%	0.8%	86%
AA 4335 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 20:41	SDF 23:02	18%	4%	0.8%	63%
OH 5256 PSA	PHL 14:34	SDF 16:45	20%	8%	0.4%	no record
AA 5394 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 15:25	SDF 17:36	23%	10%	0.4%	61%
AA 5915 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 09:31	SDF 11:47	19%	4%	3.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON