Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:25 am at Philadelphia); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: AA 3259 at 19:35 is the safest bet, 36% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39–48%.

Safest bet today AA 3259 PHL 19:35 → SEA 22:56 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AS 443 PHL 18:41 → SEA 21:28 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 39% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3259 American Flight history →	PHL 19:35	SEA 22:56	36%	8%	0.4%	72%
AA 1823 American	PHL 19:42	SEA 22:45	39%	8%	0.4%	no record
AA 1398 American	PHL 18:09	SEA 21:28	43%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 2522 American Flight history →	PHL 18:21	SEA 21:35	43%	9%	0.4%	54%
AS 443 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 18:41	SEA 21:28	48%	10%	0.7%	66%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	1h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 24m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	PHL 18:57 → MSP 20:53DL 2594	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	8h 01m	80%	70%
United Details →	PHL 10:39 → IAD 11:55UA 6235 · flown by Mesa	1h 15m Dulles	IAD 13:10 → SEA 15:55UA 2241	8h 16m	89%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON