Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2661 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2661 PHL 06:00 → SFO 08:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3166 PHL 16:31 → SFO 19:42 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2661 United Flight history →	PHL 06:00	SFO 08:58	11%	4%	0.4%	92%
UA 2352 United	PHL 09:23	SFO 12:42	20%	7%	0.4%	no record
UA 267 United Flight history →	PHL 09:25	SFO 12:34	22%	8%	0.4%	51%
AA 3295 American Flight history →	PHL 21:50	SFO 00:59	22%	6%	1.3%	81%
AA 1524 American Flight history →	PHL 08:28	SFO 11:29	23%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 1575 United Flight history →	PHL 18:23	SFO 21:33	24%	8%	0.7%	59%
AA 1528 American	PHL 15:34	SFO 18:45	27%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 2045 American Flight history →	PHL 16:30	SFO 19:42	28%	8%	1.2%	64%
AA 2663 American Flight history →	PHL 19:33	SFO 22:43	28%	9%	1.3%	60%
AA 3166 American Flight history →	PHL 16:31	SFO 19:42	30%	8%	1.2%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	PHL 05:00 → DEN 07:00WN 2664	1h 35m Denver	DEN 08:35 → SFO 10:12WN 4303	8h 12m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	PHL 06:05 → STL 07:25WN 3227	1h 05m St Louis	STL 08:30 → SFO 10:49WN 4931	7h 44m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	2h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 52m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON