Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:57 am at Philadelphia); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:36, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops today


DL 2022 Delta Flight history →	PHL 18:55	SLC 21:45	30%	6%	0.2%	71%
AA 2610 American Flight history →	PHL 19:54	SLC 23:08	36%	8%	0.5%	66%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765	8h 58m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	PHL 09:00 → BNA 10:05WN 3215	3h 05m Nashville	BNA 13:10 → SLC 15:38WN 4634	8h 38m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	PHL 12:35 → DEN 14:30WN 3220	2h 20m Denver	DEN 16:50 → SLC 18:35WN 1733	8h 00m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	PHL 15:38 → MSP 17:37DL 2679	2h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → SLC 22:13DL 1051	8h 35m	92%	79%
United Details →	PHL 09:29 → ORD 10:48UA 1811	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955	7h 53m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	10h 18m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 38m	99%	75%
American Details →	PHL 08:58 → ORD 10:38AA 2095	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 13:33 → SLC 16:03AA 2780	9h 05m	97%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	PHL 12:35 → DEN 14:30WN 3220	55m Denver	DEN 15:25 → SLC 16:55WN 4552	6h 20m	70%	54%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391	1h 05m Detroit	DTW 20:20 → SLC 22:15DL 2117	6h 47m	68%	53%
American Details →	PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:48 → SLC 20:34AA 558	7h 34m	68%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON