Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:24 am at Philadelphia); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: one nonstop, OH 5153 at 16:47, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OH 5153 PHL 16:47 → SYR 18:01 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


OH 5153 PSA	PHL 16:47	SYR 18:01	24%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 5924 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 13:12	SYR 14:34	14%	7%	0.0%	86%
AA 6103 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 22:20	SYR 23:45	21%	8%	7.0%	79%
AA 5837 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 17:30	SYR 18:54	33%	10%	5.2%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON