Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:03 pm at Philadelphia); 8 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: AA 2322 at 19:58 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–56%.

Safest bet today AA 2322 PHL 19:58 → TPA 22:56 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest F9 2269 PHL 18:33 → TPA 21:25 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2322 American Flight history →	PHL 19:58	TPA 22:56	33%	10%	0.7%	62%
AA 2055 American	PHL 14:52	TPA 17:49	35%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 2900 American Flight history →	PHL 14:26	TPA 17:11	36%	8%	0.9%	64%
F9 4807 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 13:11	TPA 15:25	51%	19%	1.3%	75%worse than usual
F9 2269 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 18:33	TPA 21:25	56%	21%	1.3%	59%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON