Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:32 pm at Philadelphia)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 17:40, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Traverse City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHL 17:40 → ORD 19:26AA 1012	2h 14m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → TVC 00:01 +1AA 3910 · flown by Envoy	6h 21m	81%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHL 19:00 → ORD 20:33UA 2797	52m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:54UA 3572 · flown by Republic	4h 54m	47%	40%
United Details →	PHL 19:13 → ORD 20:35UA 2665	51m Chicago	ORD 21:26 → TVC 23:36UA 2071	4h 23m	49%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON