Today: WN 3366 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–36%.

Safest bet today WN 3366 PHX 06:00 → ABQ 08:19 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1050 PHX 18:55 → ABQ 21:05 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3366 Southwest	PHX 06:00	ABQ 08:19	4%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3344 Southwest	PHX 07:50	ABQ 10:09	10%	1%	0.2%	no record
MQ 4053 Envoy	PHX 12:27	ABQ 14:47	13%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 1348 American Flight history →	PHX 08:35	ABQ 10:56	14%	4%	0.2%	96%
WN 106 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 10:15	ABQ 12:30	15%	2%	0.2%	89%
OO 4977 SkyWest	PHX 09:11	ABQ 11:31	17%	4%	0.2%	no record
OO 6435 SkyWest	PHX 21:58	ABQ 00:21	18%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 4948 Southwest	PHX 11:31	ABQ 13:50	21%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 4913 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 15:46	ABQ 18:06	22%	7%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
WN 3476 Southwest	PHX 22:20	ABQ 00:40	25%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2863 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:55	ABQ 01:10	25%	7%	0.5%	54%
WN 3485 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 21:40	ABQ 23:55	27%	8%	0.5%	70%
WN 882 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 15:50	ABQ 18:05	31%	7%	0.4%	46%
WN 1225 Southwest	PHX 20:40	ABQ 22:59	31%	9%	0.5%	no record
AA 3159 American Flight history →	PHX 21:46	ABQ 23:59	31%	9%	0.8%	68%
AA 1351 American Flight history →	PHX 16:16	ABQ 18:28	33%	9%	0.8%	63%
WN 3346 Southwest	PHX 18:30	ABQ 20:50	33%	9%	0.5%	no record
AA 3021 American	PHX 18:52	ABQ 21:12	35%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 1050 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:55	ABQ 21:05	36%	9%	0.5%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON