Today: DL 929 at 23:49 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–39%.

Safest bet today DL 929 PHX 23:49 → ATL 06:27 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2391 PHX 16:11 → ATL 22:50 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 929 Delta Flight history →	PHX 23:49	ATL 06:27	14%	5%	0.9%	86%
DL 386 Delta Flight history →	PHX 15:00	ATL 21:59	21%	4%	0.2%	75%
DL 796 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:15	ATL 20:14	21%	4%	0.2%	81%
DL 1333 Delta	PHX 15:06	ATL 21:51	23%	4%	0.2%	no record
F9 2608 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 23:23	ATL 06:29	36%	18%	1.2%	69%
WN 3232 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 14:15	ATL 20:55	37%	4%	0.1%	69%
AA 2391 American Flight history →	PHX 16:11	ATL 22:50	39%	11%	0.2%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON