Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2887 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2887 PHX 05:05 → AUS 09:27 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 691 PHX 19:44 → AUS 23:57 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2887 Southwest	PHX 05:05	AUS 09:27	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4548 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:30	AUS 09:45	5%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 2041 Southwest	PHX 07:00	AUS 11:24	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4744 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:25	AUS 12:45	11%	2%	0.6%	84%
WN 3351 Southwest	PHX 09:30	AUS 13:52	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1394 American Flight history →	PHX 08:41	AUS 13:09	15%	6%	1.3%	87%
OO 3535 SkyWest	PHX 09:24	AUS 14:00	16%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 3747 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 09:40	AUS 14:15	17%	7%	0.7%	80%
AA 1059 American	PHX 08:58	AUS 13:36	17%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 202 Southwest	PHX 13:05	AUS 17:28	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3234 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:35	AUS 15:50	27%	5%	0.6%	38%
AA 2412 American	PHX 13:30	AUS 17:53	28%	9%	1.3%	no record
WN 3208 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 17:25	AUS 21:40	28%	10%	0.6%	19%
AA 2892 American Flight history →	PHX 15:25	AUS 19:43	33%	10%	1.3%	70%
AA 691 American Flight history →	PHX 19:44	AUS 23:57	35%	12%	1.3%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON