Today: WN 3235 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–37%.

Safest bet today WN 3235 PHX 05:10 → BNA 10:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1370 PHX 16:31 → BNA 21:59 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 3235 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:10	BNA 10:25	6%	1%	0.1%	88%
WN 3355 Southwest	PHX 05:25	BNA 10:44	7%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 719 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:50	BNA 13:10	15%	2%	0.1%	83%
AA 3073 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	BNA 14:02	18%	4%	0.2%	86%
WN 595 Southwest	PHX 08:10	BNA 13:26	21%	3%	0.1%	no record
AA 1841 American	PHX 08:43	BNA 14:14	22%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 2701 Southwest	PHX 13:45	BNA 19:00	28%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 951 Southwest	PHX 18:50	BNA 00:06	28%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 4600 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 15:20	BNA 20:40	30%	7%	0.5%	32%
WN 3237 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 12:45	BNA 18:00	31%	6%	0.1%	64%
WN 4328 Southwest	PHX 11:50	BNA 17:05	31%	4%	0.1%	no record
AA 1370 American Flight history →	PHX 16:31	BNA 21:59	37%	10%	1.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON