Today: WN 184 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–38%.

Safest bet today WN 184 PHX 08:05 → BOI 11:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3320 PHX 16:30 → BOI 19:46 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 184 Southwest	PHX 08:05	BOI 11:15	11%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 4601 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:40	BOI 11:45	11%	1%	0.1%	94%
AA 4948 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:10	BOI 13:27	21%	7%	0.2%	93%worse than usual
AA 2888 American	PHX 10:07	BOI 13:37	21%	7%	0.2%	no record
AA 6332 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 19:31	BOI 22:46	25%	9%	0.7%	70%
AA 4952 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 20:35	BOI 23:52	25%	8%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
WN 4332 Southwest	PHX 22:35	BOI 01:49	26%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 2554 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:45	BOI 01:50	27%	5%	0.5%	60%
AA 4934 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 13:35	BOI 16:50	31%	7%	0.2%	85%worse than usual
OO 4919 SkyWest	PHX 13:37	BOI 16:53	33%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 577 Southwest	PHX 15:05	BOI 18:18	37%	4%	0.1%	no record
AS 3096 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 16:56	BOI 20:10	37%	8%	0.2%	84%worse than usual
OO 3320 SkyWest	PHX 16:30	BOI 19:46	38%	7%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON