Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1697 at 22:32 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1697 PHX 22:32 → BOS 06:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 366 PHX 13:00 → BOS 21:00 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1697 Delta Flight history →	PHX 22:32	BOS 06:30	15%	5%	0.7%	86%
B6 1302 JetBlue Flight history →	PHX 00:00	BOS 07:44	18%	10%	0.6%	73%
AA 1564 American Flight history →	PHX 08:42	BOS 16:55	19%	5%	1.2%	81%
AA 1245 American	PHX 08:40	BOS 16:58	19%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 2701 American Flight history →	PHX 21:45	BOS 05:45	20%	5%	1.3%	87%
AA 2228 American	PHX 12:34	BOS 20:41	28%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 2778 American Flight history →	PHX 13:41	BOS 21:34	30%	8%	1.2%	74%
AA 567 American Flight history →	PHX 15:15	BOS 23:14	30%	9%	1.2%	70%
AA 366 American Flight history →	PHX 13:00	BOS 21:00	31%	9%	1.2%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 14:01 → BOS 16:09DL 1171	7h 09m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558	7h 05m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → BOS 22:01DL 1502	7h 13m	94%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON