Today: WN 1100 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–43%.

Safest bet today WN 1100 PHX 09:50 → BUR 11:15 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 980 PHX 16:32 → BUR 17:59 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1100 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:50	BUR 11:15	17%	3%	0.5%	92%
WN 397 Southwest	PHX 10:08	BUR 11:06	21%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1493 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 12:45	BUR 14:05	26%	5%	0.4%	84%
WN 3414 Southwest	PHX 13:27	BUR 14:56	26%	6%	0.4%	no record
WN 1680 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 14:10	BUR 15:30	26%	6%	0.4%	81%
WN 1436 Southwest	PHX 15:27	BUR 16:56	28%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 6415 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 14:41	BUR 16:11	33%	11%	0.5%	84%worse than usual
OO 6446 SkyWest	PHX 14:33	BUR 16:06	33%	11%	0.5%	no record
WN 3248 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 20:25	BUR 21:50	39%	10%	0.4%	43%
WN 4667 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:10	BUR 19:30	40%	9%	0.4%	49%
WN 3365 Southwest	PHX 20:20	BUR 21:49	42%	10%	0.4%	no record
WN 4905 Southwest	PHX 18:30	BUR 19:59	43%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 980 American Flight history →	PHX 16:32	BUR 17:59	43%	14%	0.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON