Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 945 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 945 PHX 05:00 → BWI 12:17 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4347 PHX 16:25 → BWI 23:50 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 945 Southwest	PHX 05:00	BWI 12:17	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1039 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:30	BWI 16:55	20%	3%	0.5%	68%
WN 1562 Southwest	PHX 13:05	BWI 20:21	31%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4347 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:25	BWI 23:50	35%	7%	0.5%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	PHX 05:00 → STL 09:50WN 3352	1h 10m St Louis	STL 11:00 → BWI 14:05WN 4614	6h 05m	96%	87%
Southwest Details →	PHX 06:25 → MDW 11:40WN 3295	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 12:45 → BWI 15:43WN 2848	6h 18m	97%	85%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	54m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	6h 17m	94%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON