tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:20, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 6416 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PHX 08:55 BZN 12:40 14% 5% 0.6% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PHX 06:15 → DEN 09:00WN 1706 3h 30m Denver DEN 12:30 → BZN 14:10WN 4219 6h 55m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 3h 15m Denver DEN 15:15 → BZN 17:10UA 6030 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 41m Denver DEN 11:33 → BZN 13:22UA 741 6h 22m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 4h 17m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 13:50 → BZN 15:13DL 3906 · flown by SkyWest 4h 28m 96% 84%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 11:25 → DEN 14:10WN 681 1h 45m Denver DEN 15:55 → BZN 17:41WN 4530 5h 16m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 11:00 → DEN 13:45WN 3262 3h 05m Denver DEN 16:50 → BZN 18:35WN 4790 6h 35m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738 3h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 6h 18m 98% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON