Today: WN 3887 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Safest bet today WN 3887 PHX 09:10 → CLE 16:05 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 452 PHX 15:44 → CLE 22:42 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3887 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:10	CLE 16:05	16%	2%	0.1%	81%
WN 4859 Southwest	PHX 12:55	CLE 19:42	33%	3%	0.1%	no record
F9 2698 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 12:32	CLE 19:37	33%	6%	0.3%	79%worse than usual
AA 3111 American Flight history →	PHX 15:40	CLE 22:42	33%	10%	0.6%	64%
AA 452 American	PHX 15:44	CLE 22:42	33%	9%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	48m Denver	DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619	5h 36m	88%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON