Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Today: AA 1274 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet today AA 1274 PHX 06:20 → CLT 13:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 1211 PHX 14:03 → CLT 21:18 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1274 American Flight history →	PHX 06:20	CLT 13:35	10%	4%	0.6%	96%
AA 871 American	PHX 06:25	CLT 13:32	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 3009 American Flight history →	PHX 05:00	CLT 12:09	14%	5%	0.5%	95%
AA 849 American Flight history →	PHX 23:35	CLT 06:35	15%	5%	1.6%	81%
AA 1678 American Flight history →	PHX 10:06	CLT 17:30	16%	6%	1.2%	90%
AA 1330 American Flight history →	PHX 22:48	CLT 05:43	16%	5%	1.3%	79%
AA 1676 American Flight history →	PHX 10:06	CLT 17:10	16%	6%	1.2%	100%worse than usual
AA 1688 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	CLT 15:48	18%	6%	0.5%	89%
AA 2923 American Flight history →	PHX 12:15	CLT 19:29	22%	6%	1.2%	87%
AA 1817 American	PHX 12:20	CLT 19:23	25%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 2538 American	PHX 14:03	CLT 21:06	26%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 1211 American Flight history →	PHX 14:03	CLT 21:18	26%	9%	1.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON