Today: WN 1537 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–37%.

Safest bet today WN 1537 PHX 07:55 → CMH 14:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 160 PHX 18:25 → CMH 01:08 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1537 Southwest	PHX 07:55	CMH 14:35	10%	2%	0.2%	no record
AA 1399 American	PHX 09:01	CMH 16:06	17%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 1689 American Flight history →	PHX 08:54	CMH 15:52	19%	6%	0.3%	68%
WN 816 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 14:10	CMH 20:50	35%	5%	0.2%	77%worse than usual
AA 1156 American Flight history →	PHX 16:03	CMH 22:53	36%	9%	0.3%	75%worse than usual
WN 160 Southwest	PHX 18:25	CMH 01:08	37%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON