Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4279 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 4279 PHX 07:45 → COS 10:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2829 PHX 19:01 → COS 21:49 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4279 Southwest	PHX 07:45	COS 10:33	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4142 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:45	COS 10:30	12%	2%	0.4%	79%
WN 4878 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:40	COS 01:25	25%	8%	0.5%	50%
WN 1280 Southwest	PHX 13:40	COS 16:28	30%	5%	0.4%	no record
WN 3064 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:40	COS 19:20	36%	9%	0.4%	47%
WN 2829 Southwest	PHX 19:01	COS 21:49	37%	10%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON