Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:34 pm at Phoenix); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:51, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	7h 05m	89%	72%
American Details →	PHX 13:35 → DFW 18:12AA 1079	1h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077	7h 24m	92%	57%
Southwest Details →	PHX 13:35 → STL 18:30WN 4801	1h 20m St Louis	STL 19:50 → DCA 22:59WN 3732	6h 24m	88%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHX 14:03 → CLT 21:18AA 1211	1h 09m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	6h 50m	72%	43%
Southwest Details →	PHX 14:35 → MDW 19:55WN 3297	50m Chicago	MDW 20:45 → DCA 23:44WN 2406	6h 09m	50%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON