Today: WN 3383 at 05:23 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–44%.

Safest bet today WN 3383 PHX 05:23 → DEN 08:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2142 PHX 16:48 → DEN 19:46 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3383 Southwest	PHX 05:23	DEN 08:21	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 1706 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 06:15	DEN 09:00	6%	1%	0.2%	92%
UA 337 United Flight history →	PHX 06:00	DEN 08:52	9%	2%	0.2%	93%
WN 3384 Southwest	PHX 07:00	DEN 09:54	10%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 116 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:05	DEN 09:50	13%	1%	0.2%	81%
AA 1757 American Flight history →	PHX 08:32	DEN 11:27	14%	4%	0.2%	89%
MQ 4104 Envoy	PHX 12:27	DEN 15:25	14%	4%	0.2%	no record
F9 1376 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 06:40	DEN 09:39	14%	3%	0.2%	88%
AA 1332 American Flight history →	PHX 08:40	DEN 11:41	16%	4%	0.2%	84%
WN 3261 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:45	DEN 11:30	16%	2%	0.1%	80%
WN 3385 Southwest	PHX 10:10	DEN 13:05	16%	2%	0.1%	no record
UA 597 United Flight history →	PHX 09:08	DEN 12:00	17%	4%	0.2%	86%
WN 3389 Southwest	PHX 08:00	DEN 10:50	17%	2%	0.2%	no record
UA 1599 United	PHX 07:25	DEN 10:15	17%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 1717 Southwest	PHX 09:10	DEN 12:05	18%	2%	0.1%	no record
MQ 3338 Envoy	PHX 20:29	DEN 23:21	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 3262 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:00	DEN 13:45	20%	3%	0.2%	81%
UA 624 United Flight history →	PHX 16:25	DEN 19:21	20%	7%	0.6%	76%
WN 3386 Southwest	PHX 12:19	DEN 15:09	21%	3%	0.1%	no record
F9 4768 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 08:40	DEN 11:38	21%	6%	0.2%	85%
UA 1745 United Flight history →	PHX 18:59	DEN 21:54	22%	7%	0.6%	77%
WN 1677 Southwest	PHX 22:00	DEN 00:50	25%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 188 Southwest	PHX 16:27	DEN 19:23	25%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 709 United Flight history →	PHX 13:26	DEN 16:17	26%	6%	0.2%	87%worse than usual
UA 1615 United Flight history →	PHX 13:31	DEN 16:27	26%	5%	0.2%	75%
WN 3277 Southwest	PHX 18:15	DEN 21:10	28%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 681 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:25	DEN 14:10	29%	2%	0.2%	69%
WN 3387 Southwest	PHX 13:25	DEN 16:15	30%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 4448 Southwest	PHX 17:25	DEN 20:15	30%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 3233 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 20:20	DEN 23:10	30%	6%	0.5%	45%
WN 3267 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:30	DEN 22:25	30%	6%	0.5%	50%
UA 280 United	PHX 15:25	DEN 18:16	31%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 3264 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 13:45	DEN 16:35	31%	3%	0.1%	61%
WN 4758 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 17:10	DEN 20:00	31%	7%	0.5%	24%
WN 3266 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:40	DEN 21:25	34%	6%	0.5%	24%
WN 3388 Southwest	PHX 15:15	DEN 18:05	35%	4%	0.1%	no record
AA 2602 American Flight history →	PHX 15:12	DEN 18:03	36%	7%	0.2%	64%
AA 1638 American Flight history →	PHX 18:59	DEN 21:51	37%	9%	1.2%	70%
AA 3255 American Flight history →	PHX 19:11	DEN 22:03	37%	9%	1.2%	63%
WN 3265 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 15:25	DEN 18:10	37%	4%	0.1%	35%
F9 1820 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 20:49	DEN 23:54	37%	14%	0.7%	75%worse than usual
F9 2142 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 16:48	DEN 19:46	44%	13%	0.7%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON