Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1655 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1655 PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 3972 PHX 16:39 → DFW 21:18 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1655 American Flight history →	PHX 05:10	DFW 09:45	8%	3%	1.6%	91%
AA 1018 American Flight history →	PHX 06:10	DFW 10:42	9%	4%	1.3%	90%
AA 1139 American Flight history →	PHX 07:30	DFW 12:06	13%	5%	1.3%	93%
AA 1818 American Flight history →	PHX 00:36	DFW 05:09	14%	5%	1.8%	81%
AA 554 American Flight history →	PHX 09:30	DFW 14:08	16%	6%	1.3%	87%
AA 3284 American Flight history →	PHX 10:31	DFW 15:10	16%	6%	1.3%	88%
F9 2532 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 06:24	DFW 10:59	17%	8%	0.7%	83%
AA 2719 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	DFW 13:05	17%	6%	1.2%	87%
AA 795 American	PHX 09:03	DFW 13:40	19%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 1648 American Flight history →	PHX 12:19	DFW 16:55	22%	8%	1.2%	74%
AA 1079 American Flight history →	PHX 13:35	DFW 18:12	24%	7%	1.2%	73%
AA 3232 American Flight history →	PHX 17:15	DFW 21:50	28%	9%	1.0%	59%
AA 2113 American Flight history →	PHX 15:15	DFW 19:53	28%	9%	1.2%	54%
AA 2603 American Flight history →	PHX 20:21	DFW 00:48	28%	9%	1.2%	61%
AA 633 American Flight history →	PHX 19:00	DFW 23:25	32%	10%	1.2%	60%
F9 3972 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 16:39	DFW 21:18	35%	17%	0.7%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON