Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Today: WN 2239 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–44%.

Safest bet today WN 2239 PHX 07:55 → ELP 10:18 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2908 PHX 18:51 → ELP 21:13 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2239 Southwest	PHX 07:55	ELP 10:18	7%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3889 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:50	ELP 10:05	8%	1%	0.2%	97%
AA 3508 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 08:44	ELP 11:05	10%	3%	0.4%	82%
AA 3203 American	PHX 08:53	ELP 11:29	16%	5%	0.4%	no record
AA 3874 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 16:00	ELP 18:24	20%	4%	0.6%	81%
WN 294 Southwest	PHX 11:45	ELP 14:08	23%	3%	0.4%	no record
OO 4936 SkyWest	PHX 22:09	ELP 00:33	27%	9%	0.7%	no record
OO 4971 SkyWest	PHX 12:57	ELP 15:18	28%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 898 Southwest	PHX 16:17	ELP 18:40	33%	6%	0.4%	no record
WN 662 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:45	ELP 00:55	35%	8%	0.5%	31%
WN 1795 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 15:25	ELP 17:40	36%	8%	0.4%	47%
WN 3393 Southwest	PHX 19:00	ELP 21:23	38%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 4551 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:45	ELP 21:00	41%	9%	0.5%	23%
AA 2423 American Flight history →	PHX 16:10	ELP 18:25	41%	9%	0.7%	65%
AA 2908 American	PHX 18:51	ELP 21:13	44%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON