Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:41 pm at Phoenix); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: MQ 3765 at 21:12, 21%.

Nonstops today


MQ 3765 Envoy	PHX 21:12	EUG 23:50	21%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 4028 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 20:40	EUG 23:17	23%	7%	0.4%	86%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738	3h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → EUG 23:55DL 3721 · flown by SkyWest	6h 50m	97%	82%
Southwest Details →	PHX 15:00 → SMF 16:55WN 148	3h 30m Sacramento	SMF 20:25 → EUG 21:50WN 291	6h 50m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449	3h 33m Seattle	SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest	7h 57m	97%	55%
Southwest Details →	PHX 15:25 → DEN 18:10WN 3265	2h 45m Denver	DEN 20:55 → EUG 22:45WN 3821	7h 20m	95%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHX 19:20 → SLC 21:59DL 1451	56m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → EUG 23:55DL 3721 · flown by SkyWest	4h 35m	74%	63%
Alaska Details →	PHX 17:48 → PDX 20:30AS 662	1h 01m Portland	PDX 21:31 → EUG 22:30AS 3043 · flown by SkyWest	4h 42m	66%	45%
Southwest Details →	PHX 17:10 → DEN 20:00WN 4758	50m Denver	DEN 20:50 → EUG 22:34WN 4411	5h 24m	44%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON