Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:28 pm at Phoenix); 11 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 23–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 1194 United	PHX 22:25	EWR 06:04	23%	7%	0.2%	no record
AA 2156 American Flight history →	PHX 22:14	EWR 06:00	28%	9%	0.3%	83%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON