Today: AA 4091 at 14:24 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–41%.

Safest bet today AA 4091 PHX 14:24 → FAT 16:07 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3174 PHX 21:32 → FAT 23:08 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 4091 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 14:24	FAT 16:07	17%	6%	0.2%	89%
AA 2396 American Flight history →	PHX 10:30	FAT 12:24	21%	7%	0.2%	80%
AA 1831 American Flight history →	PHX 10:21	FAT 12:01	21%	7%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
OO 4978 SkyWest	PHX 13:54	FAT 15:44	30%	11%	0.1%	no record
AA 6317 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 17:29	FAT 19:12	36%	13%	0.2%	77%worse than usual
AA 990 American	PHX 20:22	FAT 22:17	40%	11%	0.3%	no record
AA 3174 American Flight history →	PHX 21:32	FAT 23:08	41%	15%	1.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON