Today: AA 540 at 11:03 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–39%.

Safest bet today AA 540 PHX 11:03 → GEG 14:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 1785 PHX 20:30 → GEG 23:06 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 540 American Flight history →	PHX 11:03	GEG 14:00	22%	6%	0.2%	75%
AA 1888 American Flight history →	PHX 11:22	GEG 14:02	24%	7%	0.2%	74%
WN 4273 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:50	GEG 01:25	30%	6%	0.5%	50%
WN 2491 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:45	GEG 12:20	31%	3%	0.1%	69%
WN 3011 Southwest	PHX 20:55	GEG 23:37	37%	10%	0.5%	no record
AA 2876 American Flight history →	PHX 20:13	GEG 23:01	37%	14%	0.8%	78%worse than usual
AA 1785 American Flight history →	PHX 20:30	GEG 23:06	39%	14%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON