Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 15–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today MQ 3617 PHX 08:57 → GJT 11:39 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4994 PHX 15:53 → GJT 18:23 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3617 Envoy	PHX 08:57	GJT 11:39	15%	3%	0.2%	no record
AA 6318 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 21:48	GJT 00:16	21%	6%	0.6%	82%
OO 4937 SkyWest	PHX 15:32	GJT 18:06	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3471 Envoy	PHX 18:55	GJT 21:28	23%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 4994 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 15:53	GJT 18:23	24%	6%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON