Today: WN 3396 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–39%.

Safest bet today WN 3396 PHX 05:00 → HOU 09:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1874 PHX 15:05 → HOU 19:43 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3396 Southwest	PHX 05:00	HOU 09:39	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 4668 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:05	HOU 09:40	5%	1%	0.4%	93%
WN 3397 Southwest	PHX 07:45	HOU 12:24	13%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 2833 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:05	HOU 12:40	16%	4%	0.3%	94%
WN 1049 Southwest	PHX 10:37	HOU 15:17	25%	4%	0.3%	no record
WN 3067 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 10:25	HOU 15:05	26%	4%	0.3%	67%
WN 3420 Southwest	PHX 20:55	HOU 01:34	37%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 737 Southwest	PHX 19:20	HOU 23:58	37%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 4203 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 17:25	HOU 22:05	38%	8%	0.6%	35%
WN 4315 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:20	HOU 23:55	39%	9%	0.6%	44%
WN 1874 Southwest	PHX 15:05	HOU 19:43	43%	7%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON