Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: WN 4109 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–39%.

Safest bet today WN 4109 PHX 07:45 → IND 14:10 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2932 PHX 18:45 → IND 01:14 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4109 Southwest	PHX 07:45	IND 14:10	14%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 3186 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:00	IND 15:25	16%	3%	0.1%	92%
AA 1946 American Flight history →	PHX 08:50	IND 15:30	17%	7%	0.2%	88%
AA 2954 American Flight history →	PHX 09:25	IND 15:47	19%	6%	0.2%	89%
WN 3659 Southwest	PHX 10:56	IND 17:17	28%	8%	0.1%	no record
AA 1255 American Flight history →	PHX 15:30	IND 22:01	33%	10%	0.6%	66%
WN 452 Southwest	PHX 14:55	IND 21:16	33%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 3231 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:15	IND 01:45	37%	10%	0.5%	33%
WN 2932 Southwest	PHX 18:45	IND 01:14	39%	9%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON