Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 546 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 546 PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1224 PHX 12:53 → JFK 21:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 546 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	JFK 13:59	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 548 Delta Flight history →	PHX 22:35	JFK 06:27	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 636 American Flight history →	PHX 07:00	JFK 14:59	16%	3%	1.0%	89%
AA 1587 American Flight history →	PHX 21:50	JFK 05:47	16%	5%	1.3%	87%
AA 2689 American Flight history →	PHX 09:15	JFK 17:28	22%	5%	1.0%	86%
DL 791 Delta Flight history →	PHX 11:40	JFK 20:01	22%	4%	0.7%	80%
AA 2339 American Flight history →	PHX 10:15	JFK 18:05	23%	6%	1.0%	87%
AA 832 American Flight history →	PHX 15:51	JFK 23:58	28%	7%	1.0%	76%
B6 136 JetBlue Flight history →	PHX 23:06	JFK 07:00	30%	10%	0.9%	76%
AA 1224 American Flight history →	PHX 12:53	JFK 21:00	33%	9%	1.0%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	7h 15m	96%	82%
American Details →	PHX 09:24 → IND 15:47AA 2954	1h 18m Indianapolis	IND 17:05 → JFK 19:28AA 4456 · flown by Republic	7h 04m	90%	79%
American Details →	PHX 10:05 → CLT 17:10AA 1676	52m Charlotte	CLT 18:02 → JFK 20:06AA 657	7h 01m	100%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON